Today's prices are still far higher than they were in
mid-2004 when the median was $530,000 and the average was
$732,432.
At the median, half of sales were for more, half for
less.
The number of single-family homes sold, which had held up
even as prices eased, has tumbled. At the peak in mid-2005,
there were 666 sales in six months, and there were 650 in the
first half of 2007. But in the first half of 2008, only 476
changed hands.
That puts the total dollar turnover just where it was in
mid-2004, $422 million so far this year, which is down a third
from last year.
Tolman says that "properties priced right will sell in a
reasonable amount of time." Days-on-market averages confirm
that.
Early in 2005, long before buyers and lenders were worried
about subprime mortgage defaults, single-family homes were
selling, on average, after 110 to 153 days. So far this year,
the wait has been longer by about three weeks - from 134 days
in February to 183 days in May.
The condominium market presents a much different picture.
The number of units turning over is half what it was three
years ago - 507 in the first half this year.
But prices are much higher.
The median condo price is up 10 percent this year to
$575,000, and the average is up 27 percent to $961,554 - which
means condos are averaging more than homes, a unique situation
for Maui.
As far as prices go, the peak of the market was not three
years ago but is happening right now. In mid-2005, the median
condo was selling for $371,500, and the average was $514,895.
Today's median is $60,000 above 2005's average.
As would be expected with the pace of the market slowing so
much, the days on market for condos is way up.
In early 2005, the monthly average days on market ranged
from 102 to 140 for condos. This year, 2005's days-on-market
ceiling became 2008's floor. The number ranged from 140 days
in May to 223 in January.
Because the condo market has moved decisively toward the
luxury end, the total dollar turnover is down only marginally
from three years ago - $505 million then, $488 million now -
and is slightly ahead of last year's turnover.
With a list of new developments and a spreadsheet program,
it is possible to "back out" the effect of new luxury condos
from the averages. When that is done, one agent figures older
condos have been selling for about what they were at the end
of 2007.
Tolman ran the numbers for the past five weeks - June 1
through Tuesday - and noted 67 condo closings, 56 of them
resales.
With the 11 new ones included, the median sales price was
$580,000. Without, the median dropped to $515,000.
Tolman cautions that it is sometimes difficult to be sure
what counts as "new."
Sellers self-report to the Multiple Listing Service what
they have. Some years ago, Tolman and other association
managers in the state realized that the self-reports were not
self-evident.
Sometimes, he says, a seller would count an existing
property that had had major remodeling as new.
The Maui and Oahu associations now have a category called
"new developer offering," but there is still some play in the
definition, as it is understood by members.
Besides, as Tolman cautions each month when he publishes
the latest statistics, Maui is a small real estate market, and
areas within Maui are even smaller, which can produce skewed
spikes and dips in the percentages.
One common, if arbitrary, way of looking at real estate is
that if inventory for sale amounts to more than six months
anticipated closings, it's a buyer's market. If under six
months, a seller's market.
Days on market is one way (but not the only way) to
calculate how much inventory is out there. By that measure,
Maui real estate is still a seller's market.
But if the number of units for sale (around 1,100 this year
for homes) is compared with absorption (476 in six months),
then it begins to look like a buyer's market.
However, the number for sale is usually considered
inflated, as some owners list properties with unrealistic
asking prices, hoping lightning will strike.
In any event, the local market looks better than many
places on the Mainland, where it takes nearly a year to sell
real estate, on average.
Also, the number of sales out of foreclosure remains low
here.
As always, West Maui is a market unto itself. Average
single-family prices there range from $912,500 in Lahaina to
$2 million in Kaanapali and $4.9 million at Kapalua.
Average West Maui condo prices range from $789,559 in
Lahaina to $1.2 million at Kaanapali.
For the month of June, Neighbor Island home sales were
mostly slow, according to Hawaii Information Service. Median
prices were down on the Big Island and Maui but up on
Kauai.
The service reports that Big Island single-family home
sales declined 37 percent and condominium sales dropped 33
percent from the same time last year. The median prices for
homes dropped 18 percent.
Maui reports single-family home sales in June were down 34
percent and median prices down 8 percent.
On Kauai, single-family home sales dropped 39 percent and
condominium sales dropped 12 percent from last year. But
unlike the other islands, the median price for a single-family
home rose 5 percent.
* The Associated Press contributed to this report. Harry
Eagar can be reached at heagar@mauinews.com.
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